Old Brooms For Old Corners.

This morning I, along with everyone else who is not a member of Team #NoSleep, woke up to the news that President Mnangagwa had announced his 22 member cabinet late last night. It seems some were ready with analysis and opinion pieces literally the moment the press statement was released, something I find quite odd seeing as most of these ministers have not even had a chance to put bums to seats let alone outline policy. Some have even complained that this has taken “agonisingly long”, as if the President was sworn in barely a week ago and has had a lot on his plate. Many have complained about the retention of many familiar faces that have been implicated in corruption in the past and at best have shown lack-lustre performance in their decades in cabinet. I too look at their retention with trepidation but I believe, as I will try to outline below with a focus on economics, that context is key. I will leave the implications of installing military men in cabinet to others more qualified.

The ghosts of still-born mega-deals.

When Chris Mutsvangwa was still ambassador to China he led the effort to secure deals with that country which, whilst great for the Chinese, did not yield the desired results for Zimbabwe due to various reasons, chief amongst them ZANU PF infighting for a slice of the action going back to at least as early as 2005. Following the 2013 elections much was made of mega-deals with China that would ensure Zimbabwe’s recovery and the success of ZANU PF’s economic blueprint ZimAsset, to date it is unclear what exactly these mega-deals were or are. None of this came to pass as four years later the country is in a far worse economic condition to the point the army even noted this as one of the reasons for their coup that wasn’t a coup. Again, it is still a mystery as to why the mega-deals never materialised however I have it on good authority that ZANU PF and in effect, presidential, succession was a nagging issue for the Chinese who wanted assurance of continuity after Mugabe. As we all know now, Mugabe’s idea of succession was not that popular outside of Blue Roof.

Another mega-deal that seemed to mysteriously go up in smoke was the 2015 multi-billion dollar Dangote investment in power generation and cement manufacturing. After a flurry of activity reportedly under the personal watch of then VP Mnangagwa himself, Zimbabwe’s government went to all lengths to facilitate the consummation of the deal only to be tripped up by political risk concerns. This deal, like those with the Chinese have been on ice for years now, could the change in government be what breaks the impasse? Granted much has happened around the world as China and Dangote have turned their attention to other markets but a repackaging of these deals by Chinamasa, Bimha, Mutsvangwa and a willing President Mnangagwa could see them back on track and finally spur into life Zimbabwe’s recovery.

The Lima Plan.

In 2015 Finance minister Patrick Chinamasa was on an outreach mission to reengage international lenders who had long abandoned Zimbabwe for failure to repay debts. This culminated in a trip to Lima Peru where he presented an ambitious plan to repay all debts to the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and African Development bank simultaneously by end April 2016. As has become the norm, Zimbabwe missed this deadline and was therefore unable to access further lending despite government’s claim of a billion dollar lifeline from global commodities firm Trafigura to pay the World Bank that never materialised. With Zimbabwe enjoying a now enjoying renewed attention from global lenders and development partners, could there be a resuscitation of the Lima Plan in the short term and a restoration of credit lines within the next six to eight months? The first test will be the visit by the IMF to Harare next week.

Out with the Populists in with the Reformers.

Former President Mugabe never really enjoyed a good relationship with his finance ministers particularly from the start of the current economic crisis in the late 1990s namely, Herbert Murerwa, Simba Makoni, Christopher Kuruneri and Patrick Chinamasa. The more they advised caution, the worse the relationship, Mugabe famously said to Herbert Murerwa in 2006:

“We are under sanctions and there is no room for the type of bookish economics we have at the Ministry of Finance,” 

Patrick Chinamasa, despite his many mistakes in an effort to please a demanding and diametrically opposed boss, is nothing if not a reformer. He has consistently called for fiscal restraint but only to be rebuffed on occasions too numerous to mention culminating in his recent short-lived move to the now defunct Ministry of Cyber Security.  President Mnangagwa too shows all the signs of being a reformer and in the short term this combination could yield spectacular results for Zimbabwe if Chinamasa is given the independence to carry out the much needed reforms he is all too aware of. It will be interesting to see how his reformist agenda is received by the rest of government. Another man who was brought in as a reformer but had no choice but to tow the Mugabe line is Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor John Mangudya. He is now the man tasked with facilitating the return of stolen money under the ninety day exemption and overseeing the recovery of the financial sector and with Chinamasa, dealing with international financial institutions.

Policies, policies everywhere but not a sign of implementation.

It is no secret Zimbabwe is “blessed” with policy crafters but what has been sorely lacking is implementation. If President Mnangagwa is to be believed, his administration will focus on correcting this. It would not be surprising at all if the new administration, rather than start from scratch,  simply dust off the some old policies, update them and get to work implementing. It would save a lot of time, labour and money, especially on critical economic and legal reforms that have been pending for years. So whilst many have criticised this cabinet for being full of the same old faces, I am inclined to believe there is a valid reason for this. These same old faces will not need to start from scratch, they are already aware of what needs to be done, who needs to do it and how. What has lacked in the past is a reason for implementation and this is no longer the case, government has no choice but to fix the economy and to do so urgently. If one wants to take a more macabre view, even those who have been eating know they can only eat from a functioning economy. There is much work to be done and whilst a rising tide lifts all ships, cautious optimism remains the default position at this stage.

 

Based in Johannesburg South Africa, Ricky Marima is a recovering economist and twenty year veteran of building businesses across a variety of industries. He currently works at knowledge startup RemNes where he guides clients across the continent to ask the right questions about the 4th Industrial Revolution. You can reach him on ricky@remnes.com

 

NO VACANCY HERE! A National Moto. (Part 2)

In my previous post I looked at how corporate Zimbabwe has consistently replicated certain traits of the government and political parties. I initially meant for this to be a follow-up outlining how those negative traits have impacted the economy and how they can be corrected, however, this idea was overtaken by events. Over the last three weeks I have worked and reworked the article as one event after another changed Zimbabwe’s trajectory leading me to widen the scope of this post. Now that the political dust seems to have settled, albeit temporarily, the time has come to look at the economy and particularly the private sector’s role in it’s recovery.

Zimbabwe’s Real Economic Dependency Ratio.

A country’s dependency ratio is defined as the ratio of economically active workers compared to inactive. In Zimbabwe one has to take into consideration the fact that the unemployment rate has been stubbornly above 90% for years and despite government’s best attempts to rework the numbers, the truth of a failing economy is impossible to hide. Recently I was told about middle management staff at a certain bank, most of them have been there for a number of years and enjoy numerous benefits including access to hard currency and school fees being paid for by the employer. These people are getting on in years but have no intention of leaving their positions to make space for new blood because of the fear of unemployment. This means there is no chance for upward mobility for those lower down the totem pole, and no chance of entry for those applying for jobs at that same bank. Now extrapolate this to the entire economy and you start to get a sense of the difficulties in reducing the country’s stubbornly high unemployment rate.

As we all wait for the announcement of President Mnangagwa’s cabinet, something I expected to have happened within hours of his swearing in, and government’s economic recovery framework, we have to consider some of the potential landmines that can scupper Zimbabwe’s recovery.

A multi-generational time bomb.

I come from a generation that started their adult life with much promise in the mid-nineties and went through the trauma of watching those opportunities wither and die over the last twenty years. In that period, many Zimbabweans who cam of age have been unable to get jobs and those who did, the vast majority were not able to hold onto them. This has led to two failed generations of Zimbabweans with little to no experience who have been forced to make a living in any way they can yet yearn for the security of a regular pay cheque. We now find ourselves looking at potentially a third failed generation if there isn’t a radical transformation of the economy. Assuming that government and business are able to quickly craft and immediately implement policies that see rapid job creation, how will they deal with three generations all simultaneously seeking employment? These jobs will need to be sustainable and contribute to economic recovery, rather than just be window-dressing.

Government’s wage bill conundrum.

Zimbabwe’s public service has long been plagued by ghost workers, an inefficient and bloated workforce, and a hugely excessive wage bill accounting for over 86% of overheads in January 2017. As finance minister, Patrick Chinamasa tried repeatedly to reduce this wage bill but was blocked by then President Mugabe for purely populist reasons. For any economic recovery strategy to be taken seriously, it will need to include not only drastic cuts in the government wage bill, but also a plan for where these people will go to avoid worsening an already terrible unemployment crisis. Government even went as far as changing the legislation to avoid hefty severance packages. This however, may no longer be possible and if government sought to retrench employees to reduce the wage bill, they would likely have to borrow to fund the process which is something that would bring it’s own challenges considering government’s current inability to borrow internationally and illiquidity of the local market. With an unenviably long list of development priorities it will be interesting to see how government handles this.

The diaspora factor.

Much has been said over the years about Zimbabwe and her relationship with her diaspora, you can find my thoughts here, however, this segment of the population is going to be key to the country’s economic recovery. This will require specific policies to attract this resource back to the country even if it is at risk of a local backlash from those who have toughed it out through the worst of the economic decline. The risk of backlash can be mitigated if policies are designed in such a way as to attract diaspora resources without affording undue benefit, as was done in the past by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) under then governor Gideon Gono.

In the past the RBZ’s only way of engaging the diaspora has been through encouraging remittances, this money has almost exclusively gone towards consumptive expenditure. Past efforts to encourage corporate investment have fallen flat due to a well founded lack of trust in the government, despite the positive wave the new administration is riding on, it will take some work to turn this goodwill into investment.

What the future holds.

Some have expressed disappointment that Zimbabwe missed an opportunity for a new democratic dispensation, this view does not take into account the country’s history. Since it’s inception as a nation Zimbabwe has never known the type democratic dispensation that they imagine and this was never going to happen with the cast of characters behind this latest change of the guard. To be frank, Zimbabwe is a quasi-authoritarian state with a strong military influence on governance. Looking at the continent this may actually not be a bad thing for the economy when one considers that Africa’s fastest growing economies are similarly structured, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Egypt, which recently overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest receiver of foreign direct investment (FDI), all fall into the quasi-authoritarian mould. Rwanda’s Paul Kagame who regularly wins elections with more than 90% of the vote has been referred to as a benevolent dictator. Maybe the question Zimbabwe needs to face is, how much democratic space are we willing to give up for economic recovery and subsequently growth? Going by the events of the last two weeks this question may already have been answered for us.

Whilst I do not trust politicians, I do have utmost faith in their instincts of self-preservation and this new administration in the making has shown unique tenacity in coming back from the political brink to force the resignation of Robert Mugabe. If this is anything to go by, the easiest way for them to hold onto power is to facilitate an economic recovery.  The new government has it all to do and is currently riding on a wave of national euphoria that it still has not fully taken advantage of. Everything hinges on the cabinet announcement and policy direction, the sooner that happens the better. It is notable that the British government have been the first to unequivocally pledge their support for Zimbabwe’s economic recovery and their minister for Africa, Rory Stewart, was on the ground as soon as former President Mugabe resigned. Despite some initial misgivings about the British being the first to show up, I believe anyone stepping up to help Zimbabwe at this point should at least be considered, the country has a long  recovery and the sooner this journey begins, the better.

NO VACANCY HERE! A National Moto. (Part 1)

 

“Like Saturn, the Revolution devours its children.” Jacques Mallet Du Pan 1793 

It has long been known that Zimbabwe’s politicians regardless of party affiliation, are not given to discussions about succession, whilst simultaneously talking about the importance of the country’s youth. The ruling elite continues to introduce laws and measures that not only seek to ensure their privileged status but extend it at the expense of the general population. However, this resistance to succession is not unique to politics.

No Country For Young Folk.

Zimbabwe is a classic case of a country led by people who are stuck on the fact that they liberated the country but at the same time do not recognize that the country is indeed liberated and events of the last twenty years have not helped. To this end, they stay in power purportedly to protect the liberation they ushered in, never letting you forget it. In this spirit of liberation the late eighties and early nineties saw the emergence of a black male business elite buoyed by favorable government policies and generous loans. Whilst there are a number of admirable businessmen who emerged, the not so admirable were never far behind, along with corrupt and corruptible government officials. In 1990 these self-proclaimed economic liberators formed the Indigenous Business Development Centre to “secure” said liberation. Barely four years later the Affirmative Action Group, AAG, was formed in response to the perceived slow pace of progress in IBDC. In reality, it was a collection of the more radical and flamboyant elements in black business who wanted their own platform from which to shine, personified best in the character of one of the founding members, Philip Chiyangwa.  He remains a loud voice in AAG despite no longer being it’s president.

In this spirit of liberation the late eighties and early nineties saw the emergence of a black male business elite buoyed by favorable government policies and generous loans.

One trait in corporate Zimbabwe that emerged in this era and continues today, is a reluctance to let go. Granted, founders and experienced managers have a lot to contribute but you will be hard-pressed to find a Zimbabwean board, public or private that has ever actively groomed new talent and rotated members out at the end of their terms. This is something that was symptomatic before the economic collapse beginning in the late nineties and has only become more entrenched since.

In banking we trusted.

The early nineties saw Zimbabwe welcome a number of black-owned financial services firms most notably banks and insurance companies either newly established or through acquisition of interest in existing businesses.  Jump to late 2003 and the country was gripped by a banking crisis which, if the Reserve Bank is to be believed, was engineered by these very founders. Despite this many of the founders continued to head their institutions, even if it meant attempting to do so from outside the country after evading arrest. Others survived or defied board attempts to remove them or get them to relinquish their shares eventually leaving on their own terms. Some, like William Nyemba of Trust Bank and Mthuli Ncube of Barbican Bank were not so lucky, they had their banks seized and closed respectively by the Reserve Bank. James Mushore who co-founded NMBZ in 1993 fled the country to avoid imminent arrest in 2004 to only return six years later and later left the bank in 2014. In 2015 he joined the board of Meikles Africa in 2015, they have an interesting way of explaining his time away from 2004 to 2010.

Screen Shot 2017-10-23 at 3.34.14 PM

Who’s company is it anyway?

This resistance to succession is so entrenched in Zimbabwe you will find it in just about any sector. John Moxon, Executive Chairman of Meikles is embroiled in a years long battle to topple him having joined in 1970 and been on various Meikles boards since 1980. Anthony Mandiwanza has been Group Chief Executive at Dairibord for almost 20 years and joined the company in 1980, oddly enough none of this information is on the Dairibord site. Retired Justice Leslie Smith has been Chairman of the National Blood Service Zimbabwe, NBSZ, since 1977.  Michael Fowler and Zed Koudounaris are a founding shareholders of Innscor and have featured on the board in various roles, they are currently non-executive directors.

Drill down to management in corporate Zimbabwe and you will likely find this resistance is rife. With limited opportunities for upward mobility and the dire consequences of unemployment in a failing economy, people will do all they can to hold onto their positions for as long as they can. Even with companies struggling to pay salaries on time, sometimes not at all, employees hold onto their jobs regardless.

What’s good for the party is good for the board.

This economic liberation of the eighties and nineties is devouring the children of two generations and eyeing a third. We routinely berate political parties for not having clear succession plans but the best laid plans of politicians will come to nothing if there is no succession in the economy. It is sheer suicide to wait for the current executive to die off in the hope that this will finally present an opportunity for new blood.

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure,” Thomas Jefferson November 13, 1787. 

In Part 2 next week I will look at the economic distortions in Zimbabwe as a consequence of of this culture of holding on as the economy has contracted, what this means for Zimbabwe’s recovery and possible solutions.

***

Based in Johannesburg South Africa, Ricky Marima is a recovering economist and twenty year veteran of building businesses across a variety of industries. He currently works at knowledge startup RemNes where he guides clients across the continent to ask the right questions about the 4th Industrial Revolution. You can reach him on ricky@remnes.com

 

 

How Do You Say Unicorn In Your Language?

This article first appeared on LinkedIn, follow me there.  

Earlier this week I attended a talk on the 4th Industrial Revolution and as expected, some of the usual buzzwords were thrown around, including “this could be the first African unicorn”. To date, American and Chinese startups have dominated the unicorn rankings with India a distant third, however, there is yet to be a unicorn from Central and South America or Africa. Chances are the world will not see an African unicorn anytime soon and here is why.

A time before unicorns

Before getting to the impossibility of the existence of an African unicorn, nevermind a decacorn or hectacorn, a little history. In 1999 VeriSign bought South African internet certification firm Thawte Consulting for $575 million, at the time some believed VeriSign had grossly overpaid for a company that few outside the tech sector had ever heard of. Turns out Thawte was VeriSign’s biggest and only competitor as a digital internet certificate provider and acquisition made more sense for both companies rather than competition, VeriSign also took into account Thawte’s future revenues in it’s valuation. At the time Thawte founder and then 26 year old Mark Shuttleworthe was quoted as saying the sale was the best way for his company to unlock it’s value. This begs the question, if Shuttleworth had held on for a few more years could Thawte Consulting have been Africa’s first unicorn?

..could Thawte Consulting have been Africa’s first unicorn?

South African founded Dimension Data, or DiData, as it later came to be known, was Africa’s first breakout tech star. Listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in July 1987 for a modest 150 cents a share and raising R7,5 million, DiData went on to list on the London Stock Exchange in 2000 raising over $1,5 billion. The dotcom crash of the early 2000s was not kind to DiData seeing its share fall from R70 in late 2000 to less than R2 in 2003. Though they did ride out the storm and manage to rebuild, DiData were eventually sold to Japan’s NTT Dokomo in 2010 bringing an end to an era in African tech companies. Whilst being founded in Africa, DiData does not qualify as a unicorn, they’re 1987 IPO barely raised $1 million.

Follow the money

Since then, a number of tech startups have emerged across the continent garnering significant interest, notables include Nigeria’s Andela, online retailer Jumia which now spans from West to East Africa and a slew of fintech startups. It is amongst fintech startups that much of the hype around Africa’s first Unicorn is focused. Flutterwave, billed as the next big thing in payment platforms raised $10 million this July in Series A funding led by Silicon Valley venture capital funds Greycroft and Green Visor Capital, to put this in context, between January 2015 and August 2017 African fintech startups raised just over $100 million in funding. Also in July, Andela raised $40 million in Series C funding led by African venture capital firm CRE Venture Capital to bring it’s total funding to date to $80 million. Now, whilst these are not numbers to be sniffed at, they’re not exactly shooting the lights out when compared to what is required to even have a chance of achieving unicorn status.

between January 2015 and August 2017 African fintech startups raised just over $100 million in funding

Much of this startup funding originates outside of Africa which presents entrepreneurs with a number of problems not least of which is competing for the attention of a small investor base. Whilst, as will be explained in the next paragraph, Africa has significant private and public cash reserves, the appetite for tech investment is simply not there. On a continent where spending on telecoms is still seen as a nice to have, spending on basic infrastructure and poverty alleviation takes the bulk of public investment funds and tech is barely a consideration, if at all. This disconnect sees businesses across sectors looking offshore for funding even from inception. Ironically, technological advancement is partly to blame for this as the growth in mobile money in Africa races ahead of traditional banking.

Unlike in the United States, Africa has incredibly limited financial resources to direct towards new industries and with a financial sector dominated by global players who have other priorities besides the continent, talent and foresight are the least of our worries. In a 2017 study funded by South Africa’s Department of Trade and Industry, the University of Johannesburg found that country’s top fifty listed companies were sitting on R1,4 trillion in cash reserves as at 2016 up from R242 billion in 2005. Added to this, in 2012 South Africa allocated R827 billion to the National Infrastructure Planmeant to fund healthcare facilities, schools, water, sanitation, housing, electrification, construction of ports, roads, railway systems and electricity plants. My point, even the continent’s most developed and financially complex economy has basic priorities it has to put ahead of creating unicorns coupled with an incredibly conservative private sector when it comes to investments in general but particularly in Africa. That said, one cannot go without mentioning South African firm Optimal Energy’s attempt to build a commercially viable electric car, a valiant effort that ended in 2012 taking over R300 million of public investment funds with it.

South Africa’s top fifty listed companies were sitting on R1,4 trillion in cash reserves as at 2016 up from R242 billion in 2005. Added to this, in 2012 South Africa allocated R827 billion to the National Infrastructure Plan

Where the founders are

Last but not least, founders are exiting before they realize the full potential of their businesses because, sooner or later they figure out that nobody with the money to do it, is really willing to risk funding a potential African unicorn when they can invest that money in a Silicon Valley firm with much greater chances of success. The thing is, this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, if nobody is willing to put hundreds of millions into an African business then nobody will put hundreds of millions into an African business and there will be no billion dollar African startup. This has been true of Thawte Consulting, MXit, Jumia, Optimal Energy and Andela to name a few. A common thread amongst founders is that they are serial entrepreneurs who after exiting their startups have gone on to new businesses, never mind that the startups that we know them for are likely not their first businesses but just their best known. No matter where in the world you are, serial entrepreneurs are necessary for progress because economies can only grow through doing, the more we do, the more jobs we create and the more we create, the faster and more inclusive this growth will be.

A common thread amongst founders is that they are serial entrepreneurs

There is always something new out of Africa

Whilst Africa has been a leapfrogging champion, creating unicorns will not be one of those instances, much still needs to be done to deepen African economies before we can even dream of creating a conducive ecosystem. This may very well just be an exclusively American phenomenon but the news is not all bad though, the desire to create Silicon Valley clones across Africa may very well be the impetus to create something completely new that the world didn’t even know we needed.

“ex Africa semper aliquid novi”

Pliny the Elder

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Based in Johannesburg South Africa, Ricky Marima is a recovering economist and twenty year veteran of building businesses across a variety of industries. He currently works at knowledge startup RemNes where he guides clients across the continent to ask the right questions about the 4th Industrial Revolution. You can reach him on ricky@remnes.com

Cooperation Over Competition Is Africa’s Economic Future.

This article originally appeared on my LinkedIn page.

Good economic news has been in short supply for South Africa in recent months. From shocking allegations of state capture to the second cabinet reshuffle in less than two years and stagnant growth. A ratings downgrade proved inevitable in 2017 but there was a glimmer of hope with cautious reports of in September of green shoots emerging.

In continental news Egypt was named Africa’s top investment destination by RMB, knocking South Africa off the top spot for the first time in the seven years of the rating. South Africa and Nigeria continue to tussle for the title of Africa’s biggest economy but with a larger population and better overall growth prospects, the odds are in Nigeria’s favor. The news is not great either when you look at South Africa’s ranking in the 2017-18 WEF Global Competiveness Index (WEFGCI) or the World Bank’s Ease Of Doing Business Index.

This is by no means strictly a South African story, look at any African country and you will find they are struggling with at least one index or another. But what if we looked at things differently? What if instead of focusing on who is the best African country, region or city we looked at how through cooperation, African countries, regions or cities can overcome their individual weaknesses? It makes no sense for the African Union to trumpet African economic integration but in practice intra-regional cooperation has been woefully slow, for example, SADC’s intra-regional visa is still a dream after more than a decade of negotiations despite obvious economic benefits. It also makes no sense that a continent endowed with incredible resources competes for global investment and countries find themselves in a spiral to the bottom trying to attract foreign direct investment by giving up non-renewable resources that could fuel long term growth through beneficiation for immediate gain, the trade in unexploited oil blocks all along the east coast comes to mind.

Intra-Africa trade has only increased to 15% of total African trade in the period 2010-15 after languishing around 8-11% for the prior eight years due to numerous logistical and political bottlenecks. There is, however, hope that the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) will usher in ways to circumvent many of these bottlenecks as red tape lags behind technological advancements such as blockchain and industries now possible thanks to increasingly ubiquitous high speed internet. Faster internet speeds, rapidly mushrooming local content across all online platforms, increasing inward as every country has at least one international airport and growing intra-Africa travel is showing we Africans, are all the gateway to Africa. With blockchain cumbersome foreign exchange regulations that have long hindered intra-Africa trade could be a thing of the past. Couple this with high speed internet, one is now able to have cross-continental teams across all sorts of industries working simultaneously on the same project and not having to wait an eternity for payments or juggle exchange rates.

Blockages that have existed for decades are set to be overtaken by a new breed of entrepreneurs who do not see borders and lethargic legislation as they lead Africa’s resurgence. Cooperation, not traditional ideas of competition, is how Africa’s much talked about youth dividend will be realized. Rather than aspiring to be Africa’s top -insert favorite index here-, in the next thirty years national borders will give way to regional economic blocks anchored by mega-cities modeled by unique population growth, migration and urbanization patterns. Governments will focus on facilitating this cross-border entrepreneurial spirit through relevant educational systems, infrastructure development projects and meeting their developmental mandates.

Hyper-inflation, the second coming?

Inflation is defined as too much money chasing too few goods, simple enough right? In recent history Zimbabwe became the textbook case of hyper-inflation in the modern era and just as Venezuela was about to take over this mantle, Africa’s “most educated” country is again in the headlines for all the wrong economic reasons.

In late 2008 Zimbabwe’s inflation peaked in November 2008 before the government stopped releasing figures and subsequently  adopted a multi-currency system of the Zimbabwe dollar in early 2009. Fast forward to September 2017, Zimbabwe has effectively run out of foreign currency to support the multi-currency system and for the last two years the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has been trying to convince citizens to use bond coins and notes at an equivalent rate as the United States dollar with waning success and growing resentment. As a black market for US dollars and a parallel pricing structure have emerged, people have started to ring the alarm bells fearing hyper-inflation has returned. While this may not be the case, the consequences of the current situation are possibly far worse than what we saw in 2008.

Yes, Zimbabwe is in the grips of inflation, however, the primary good in increasingly short supply at this stage is the US dollar. The bad news is this is having a rapid knock-on effect with the latest sector to experience shortages being fuel as there is simply no money to import it. Medicines are already in short supply in hospitals with reports of the lack of basics such as headache tablets and water.

Whereas the previous hyper-inflation cycle took eleven years to peak, this one will be much faster and vicious. It seems the government is aware of this and as usual, has chosen to go after those alerting the nation to the problems instead if fixing them. Just as citizens are all too aware of the indicators of the return of critical shortages, so too is the government. Expect more such arrests and shutting down of any spaces that allow people to lament the state of the country. Expect a raft of legislation designed to stop you finding alternatives to the shortages, including but not limited to:

  • even tighter restrictions on access to money,
  • the private importation of goods,
  • restrictions on access to information and alternative points of view through social media targeting and possibly blackouts.

Also expect conditions to get much worse much quicker, at the current rate Christmas 2017 will be a grim time indeed. With elections in 2018 and the opposition still not able to muster a real challenge, the ruling party has no incentive to act in the interests of Zimbabweans and is more interested in internal succession politics, the real question is, once the next leader of ZANU PF emerges, will they have done so decisively enough to focus on economic recovery in a post-Mugabe era? As has been said by others before, you can’t rig the economy, so despite all the political maneuvering, Zimbabwe’s economic problems and their consequences, may yet still influence the outcome of the elections long before people go to the ballot box.

A Bitter Harvest Of Shattered Dreams And Broken People.

Apartheid, the worst mental experiment ever visited on African people, was in force in South Africa for 46 years between 1948 and 1994. My country, Zimbabwe, has been under the rule of one party and one man, for 37 years going on 38. In those 37 years they have built a formidable system of control that can only be rivaled in its insidiousness, bloodlust and the total devotion of it’s practitioners by apartheid. Much as in South Africa under successive apartheid governments, ZANU PF control almost every facet of Zimbabwean life and that which they do not control, they ban. Next year Zimbabweans go to vote and it is highly unlikely that the ruling party will lose that election or the one that will follow it in 2023, so by the time we get to 2028, ZANU will have been in power for 48 years.

Apartheid was a grand scheme that ensured the management of every aspect of daily life to the benefit of the white minority at the expense of the black majority by whatever means necessary. In the same spirit, ZANU PF has ruled Zimbabwe since 1980 for the benefit of a select elite, by whatever means necessary. Like in apartheid South Africa, this has included mass and targeted killings, forced removals, propaganda wars, using the police as the state’s first line of defence against disruptive elements, complete control of traditional media and, inflicting a terrible mental burden on the entire population.

Mthetho Tshemese, a South African clinical psychologist, speaks of that country’s unfinished business, the deep psychological scars that were inflicted on the nation under first colonialism then apartheid which continue to be the cause of much suffering more than 23 years into democracy. For many decades, but particularly since 1980, Zimbabwe has similarly gone through a collective psychological trauma that presents itself in the most horrifying ways. One just has to open a newspaper to the courts section to read of horrendous crimes people commit against one another, nevermind the impunity with which our politicians commit violence against opponents. Has anybody stopped to think of what damage has been wrought on the minds of people who have known nothing but a brutal regime for over 37 years? I use the term brutal for lack of a more accurate one because it is woefully inadequate to describe a state that has presided over the deaths and displacement of millions since coming to power under the pretense of liberating said millions from a colonial state that disenfranchised them only to do the same, and in some cases, worse.

Today I heard on Zimbabwean twitter of a video circulating about children as young as 9 selling themselves for sex so they can feed their younger siblings. I have not seen this video and do not know if it has been verified but you are free to search for it. Just the thought that this may be true, left my heart heavy. What made this worse were the obscene comments by some people who should know better. This brought me to terms with the real possibility that as a nation, the end of ZANU rule may only be the beginning of a new bitter chapter.

Long after ZANU is gone and it’s next to impossible to find anyone who admits to ever having voted for them we will have inherited this society of shattered dreams and broken minds. What fresh hell will Zimbabwe be then? I worry that a new vicious, violent and desensitized Zimbabwe is forming before our very eyes perpetuated by those who aspire to rule us until eternity. These rulers thrive on chaos or at least the threat of it and a dysfunctional society suits their purposes. A society where a father cannot be trusted with his daughters, a son cannot be trusted with his grandmother, sex is a commodity to be traded for survival, cabinet ministers ban a woman from the country for not wearing panties and the state-controlled media praise the “mother of the nation” for viciously assaulting a defenseless woman whilst visiting a foreign country as ten bodyguards watch.

This is the true legacy of ZANU PF’s misrule and anyone who dreams to unseat them needs to know this is the nation they will inherit. Any ideas of national healing will have to go way beyond standard interviews with victims of direct political violence but to the children, by then adults, who were displaced and grew up damaged since 1980. These are the streetkids who have poured into the cities since the mid 1990s. They are the children who have had to end schooling early to sell sweets and airtime or beg with their parents on street corners in foreign lands. They are the children forced to trade their innocence for survival and that of their siblings. They are the husbands and wives who are only together in name because one spouse had to leave Zimbabwe to go work in Canada and hasn’t been back in so long they’re kids only know them from photos not knowing if they will ever return. They are the graduates who spend their days outside the bottle store looking to put coins together so they can stay numbed with liquor and not have to think too much about just how shitty their lives are. They are the grandmother who at 73 ploughs her plot to raise 8 grandchildren after their parents died of AIDS whilst a profligate state spends millions sending delegates to international conferences. They are the doctors and nurses who simply cannot go on with the pretense of a health system and now unemotionally tell patients the horrible truth that there is nothing they can do for them.

Rwanda is hailed around the world for how they prosecuted the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide and associated crimes, to is also one of the continent’s most economically progressive and investor-friendly nations. In 2016 I visited Kigali and the conversation inevitably came up, though I did not participate, I listened. One guy spoke of how seeing people who killed your family now back on the street after serving 20 years in jail was like a secondary trauma despite Rwanda’s efforts at national healing. What more those who were too young in 1994 to understand what was happening and are only now coming to terms with what actually happened? How do they accept this as part of their history and how does this affect them? What does this mean for the national psyche going forward?

We are a nation of millions of broken Zimbabweans who bear the psychological scars of an oppressive system that has robbed us of our humanity so as to easier subjugate us. This is the nation of Zimbabwe today and I fear for what the future will bring, fixing the economy is very possible but if we are a nation of broken people there is not enough money in the world to fix that. This, is Zimbabwe’s unstarted business.